Mallacoota
East Gippsland, VIC · East Gippsland Shire · Relative human–shark interaction conditions
Temperate range-edge
Victoria is represented as a temperate range-edge. Bull-shark thermal suitability is typically low here. White shark / bronze whaler / sevengill assemblages dominate. A Moreton Bay current hypothesis does not extrapolate to Port Phillip.
Bull shark conditions
Bull shark ecological conditions are assessed as MODERATE (development model bull-shark-0.1-dev) with very low confidence. This is not an attack probability and is not the mixed-species 0–100 interaction index.
Factors increasing conditions
- Recent rainfall proxy is elevated (catchment runoff hypothesis).
Factors reducing conditions
- Coastal SST ~17.3°C is only weakly favourable on this development thermal curve.
- No live authorised bull-shark detections in vShark.
Uncertainty
- EAC / current velocity is a candidate variable and is not connected.
- Acoustic receiver health is UNKNOWN — SharkSmart/IMOS tracking is not machine-connected.
- River discharge gauges are not connected; rainfall is only a proxy.
Environmental indicators are not confirmed shark observations. This is not an attack prediction and is not the mixed-species 0–100 index.
Range-edge node. Temperate SST. Bull sharks are not treated as a regular assemblage; white sharks more relevant.
Experimental · uncalibrated
Evidence freshness: 7 Nov 2026, 8:49 pm
Dominant evidence class for the index: Environmental habitat suitability
Why?
- •No live shark detections — this is not an operational alert
- •Water temperature (~17.0°C) favours great white shark thermal suitability
- •Elevated expected human water use
Shark interaction risk is assessed as MODERATE (public index 46.6/100) with moderate combined confidence. Primary drivers: No live shark detections — this is not an operational alert; Water temperature (~17.0°C) favours great white shark thermal suitability; Elevated expected human water use. No live shark-detection feed is connected. This is an experimental development assessment, not an operational warning. Always follow lifeguard instructions, beach closures, and official NSW SharkSmart advice. vShark is not a government or SLSA product.
Species conditions
Victorian temperate range-edge. Bull-shark thermal suitability typically low. White shark / bronze whaler / sevengill more relevant. Not a Moreton pulse extension.
Recent detections / sightings
No shark observations are stored for this location. That is a data gap, not evidence that sharks are absent. SharkSmart WA is not machine-connected.
CACHED rows are curated public notices, not a live tagged-shark feed, and do not enter the 0–100 as live detections.
Environmental state
- air_temperatureLIVE22.9 °C11 Nov 2026, 10:30 pm
- rainfall_24hLIVE0.8 mm11 Nov 2026, 10:30 pm
- rainfall_7dLIVE24.3 mm11 Nov 2026, 10:30 pm
- sstLIVE17.3 °C11 Nov 2026, 10:30 pm
- swell_heightLIVE1 m11 Nov 2026, 10:30 pm
- wind_direction_degLIVE177 deg11 Nov 2026, 10:30 pm
- wind_speed_knLIVE6.2 kn11 Nov 2026, 10:30 pm
Human exposure
- Class
- unknown
- Popularity proxy
- unknown
- Model exposure
- 0.70
Estimated, not observed counts. No false precision.
Persistent spatial context
- inlet
- beach
- estuary
Geomorphology is persistent context, not a transient observation.
Data gaps
- turbidity proxy
- live detections
- recent detections
Missing data reduces confidence; it does not mean low risk.
Nearby locations
- Snowy River110.4 km
- Gippsland Lakes161.2 km
- Lakes Entrance161.2 km
- Western Port407.7 km
- Port Phillip433.2 km
Data coverage
Where vShark knows little is as important as where it knows more. Missing coverage does not mean low risk.
- Shark observation coverageNONE
NSW SharkSmart is not connected. MOCK detections do not enter the score.
- Ocean coverageMODERATE
Open-Meteo marine at the Northern Beaches centroid.
- Weather coverageMODERATE
Open-Meteo weather at the Northern Beaches centroid.
- Ecology coverageLOW
iNaturalist and climatologies are labelled context and do not enter the score.
- Human exposure coverageLOW
Provisional calendar and swell proxy only.
- Sensor coverageNONE
No authorised detection network connected.
- Historical coverageLOW
Assessment history is append-only from this prototype, not a long operational archive.
NOW / HISTORY — recent assessments
Append-only model outputs. New model versions do not rewrite these rows.
| When | Band | Index | Confidence | Model |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 Nov 2026, 8:49 pm | MODERATE | 46.6 | MODERATE | 0.1.0-dev |
| 5 Nov 2026, 2:19 am | MODERATE | 29.8 | MODERATE | 0.1.0-dev |
| 19 Oct 2026, 4:40 am | MODERATE | 40.6 | MODERATE | 0.1.0-dev |
| 13 Oct 2026, 7:39 pm | MODERATE | 37.2 | MODERATE | 0.1.0-dev |
| 9 Oct 2026, 9:09 pm | MODERATE | 37.2 | MODERATE | 0.1.0-dev |
| 9 Oct 2026, 7:24 pm | MODERATE | 37.2 | MODERATE | 0.1.0-dev |
| 5 Oct 2026, 5:52 am | MODERATE | 47.3 | MODERATE | 0.1.0-dev |
| 3 Oct 2026, 7:03 pm | MODERATE | 47.4 | MODERATE | 0.1.0-dev |
| 1 Oct 2026, 9:04 pm | MODERATE | 37 | MODERATE | 0.1.0-dev |
| 26 Sept 2026, 10:24 am | MODERATE | 44.8 | MODERATE | 0.1.0-dev |
| 23 Sept 2026, 2:50 pm | MODERATE | 33.6 | MODERATE | 0.1.0-dev |
| 22 Sept 2026, 1:22 pm | MODERATE | 32.3 | MODERATE | 0.1.0-dev |
| 21 Sept 2026, 4:05 pm | MODERATE | 24.5 | MODERATE | 0.1.0-dev |
Evidence hierarchy
- Direct recent detection — Tagged receiver, verified instrument detection, or equivalent in the relevant window.
- Verified sighting — Sighting confirmed by a responsible authority or trained observer.
- Multiple corroborated observations — Independent reports that agree in space and time.
- Strong ecological proxy — Prey aggregation, carcass, or similar with documented association — still a proxy.
- Environmental habitat suitability — Temperature, depth, and similar suitability — not presence.
- Historical seasonal association — Climatology / phenology prior. Not a live observation.
- Long-term background prevalence — Baseline occurrence in the region. Weakest for now-casting.
Methodology
Relative interaction risk, not attack probability. Official advice outranks this page. Methodology · Data sources