East Coast bull shark corridor
Moreton Bay → Sydney (Victorian range-edge separate). QLD/NSW/VIC are administrative overlays. Experimental decision support, not a warning system.
Open hypothesis
A strong southward-flowing current near Moreton Bay, a seasonal transition toward increased bull shark activity, possible movement south through the Gold Coast and Northern NSW, concern about rivers and estuaries, simultaneous unavailability of several northern SharkSmart acoustic stations, and a suggested elevated period of about a month.
Status UNRESOLVED — local knowledge generates hypotheses; independent evidence decides.
Moreton Bay — bull shark conditions
Bull shark ecological conditions are assessed as MODERATE (development model bull-shark-0.1-dev) with very low confidence. This is not an attack probability and is not the mixed-species 0–100 interaction index.
Factors reducing conditions
- No live authorised bull-shark detections in vShark.
- Seasonal prior for this month is not the peak east-coast inshore hypothesis window.
Uncertainty
- EAC / current velocity is a candidate variable and is not connected.
- Acoustic receiver health is UNKNOWN — SharkSmart/IMOS tracking is not machine-connected.
- River discharge gauges are not connected; rainfall is only a proxy.
Environmental indicators are not confirmed shark observations. This is not an attack prediction and is not the mixed-species 0–100 index.
Port Phillip — bull shark conditions (range-edge)
Bull shark ecological conditions are assessed as MODERATE (development model bull-shark-0.1-dev) with very low confidence. This is not an attack probability and is not the mixed-species 0–100 interaction index.
Factors increasing conditions
- Estuary / river-mouth node — bull sharks can use these systems (ecological basis, not a detection).
Factors reducing conditions
- No live authorised bull-shark detections in vShark.
- Seasonal prior for this month is not the peak east-coast inshore hypothesis window.
Uncertainty
- EAC / current velocity is a candidate variable and is not connected.
- Acoustic receiver health is UNKNOWN — SharkSmart/IMOS tracking is not machine-connected.
- River discharge gauges are not connected; rainfall is only a proxy.
Environmental indicators are not confirmed shark observations. This is not an attack prediction and is not the mixed-species 0–100 index.
Core corridor — Moreton Bay → Sydney
- Moreton BayCOASTAL AREA · QLD
- Brisbane RiverRIVER MOUTH · QLD
- Gold CoastCOASTAL AREA · QLD
- Nerang / BroadwaterESTUARY · QLD
- TweedCOASTAL AREA · NSW
- Tweed RiverRIVER MOUTH · NSW
- BallinaBEACH · NSW
- Richmond RiverRIVER MOUTH · NSW
- Evans HeadBEACH · NSW
- YambaBEACH · NSW
- Clarence RiverRIVER MOUTH · NSW
- Coffs HarbourBEACH · NSW
- Macleay RiverRIVER MOUTH · NSW
- Hastings RiverRIVER MOUTH · NSW
- Port MacquarieBEACH · NSW
- HunterCOASTAL AREA · NSW
- Hunter RiverRIVER MOUTH · NSW
- Hawkesbury–NepeanESTUARY · NSW
- Sydney HarbourESTUARY · NSW
- Botany Bay / Georges RiverESTUARY · NSW
Victorian range-edge — not a pulse extension
Victoria is represented as a temperate range-edge. Bull-shark thermal suitability is typically low here. White shark / bronze whaler / sevengill assemblages dominate. A Moreton Bay current hypothesis does not extrapolate to Port Phillip.
Surveillance health
- Clarence / Yamba acoustic coverageUNKNOWN
- Coffs Harbour acoustic coverageUNKNOWN
- East Gippsland acoustic coverageUNKNOWN
- Gold Coast acoustic coverageUNKNOWN
- Moreton Bay acoustic coverageUNKNOWN
- Port Phillip acoustic coverageUNKNOWN
- Tweed / Northern NSW acoustic coverageUNKNOWN
UNKNOWN means vShark cannot see SharkSmart/IMOS receiver status. Degraded coverage would lower confidence, not the ecological-conditions band.
Regions
- Moreton BayQLD
- Gold CoastQLD
- Tweed / Northern RiversNSW
- Northern Rivers / ClarenceNSW
- Mid North CoastNSW
- HunterNSW
- Sydney estuarineNSW
- East GippslandVIC
- Port Phillip / Western PortVIC