Moreton Bay
Moreton Bay, QLD · Moreton Bay / Brisbane · Relative human–shark interaction conditions
Bull shark conditions
Bull shark ecological conditions are assessed as ELEVATED (development model bull-shark-0.1-dev) with very low confidence. This is not an attack probability and is not the mixed-species 0–100 interaction index.
Factors increasing conditions
- Coastal SST ~24.8°C is in a range treated as increasingly relevant for bull sharks (hypothesis, not a threshold).
- Recent rainfall proxy is elevated (catchment runoff hypothesis).
Factors reducing conditions
- No live authorised bull-shark detections in vShark.
Uncertainty
- EAC / current velocity is a candidate variable and is not connected.
- Acoustic receiver health is UNKNOWN — SharkSmart/IMOS tracking is not machine-connected.
- River discharge gauges are not connected; rainfall is only a proxy.
Environmental indicators are not confirmed shark observations. This is not an attack prediction and is not the mixed-species 0–100 index.
Experimental · uncalibrated
Evidence freshness: 7 Nov 2026, 7:48 pm
Dominant evidence class for the index: Historical seasonal association
Why?
- •Area roll-up of 1 sub-locations (0.5×max + 0.5×mean public index)
- •Highest localised index: Brisbane River (25.9/100 · MODERATE)
- •Sub-location precision limited where data is MOCK or incomplete
Moreton Bay interaction risk is a development roll-up of 1 sub-locations (0.5*max(child publicIndex)+0.5*mean(child publicIndex); conf=min(child); hazard=max(child)). Public index 25.9/100 — MODERATE. Combined confidence moderate. Sub-location data may be MOCK or incomplete; this is not an operational warning system. Always follow lifeguard instructions and official NSW shark-safety advice. vShark is not a government or SLSA product.
Species conditions
No species contribution breakdown for this assessment.
Bull shark (Carcharhinus leucas) corridor node. Estuarine and coastal use is an ecological basis; migration pulse is a hypothesis to be tested.
Recent detections / sightings
No shark observations are stored for this location. That is a data gap, not evidence that sharks are absent. SharkSmart WA is not machine-connected.
CACHED rows are curated public notices, not a live tagged-shark feed, and do not enter the 0–100 as live detections.
Environmental state
- air_temperatureLIVE26.4 °C11 Nov 2026, 8:30 pm
- rainfall_24hLIVE9.4 mm11 Nov 2026, 8:30 pm
- rainfall_7dLIVE12 mm11 Nov 2026, 8:30 pm
- sstLIVE24.8 °C11 Nov 2026, 8:30 pm
- swell_heightLIVE0.5 m11 Nov 2026, 8:30 pm
- wind_direction_degLIVE357 deg11 Nov 2026, 8:30 pm
- wind_speed_knLIVE11.6 kn11 Nov 2026, 8:30 pm
Human exposure
- Class
- unknown
- Popularity proxy
- unknown
- Model exposure
- 0.45
Estimated, not observed counts. No false precision.
Persistent spatial context
- bay
- estuary
- island
Geomorphology is persistent context, not a transient observation.
Data gaps
- sub location live feeds
Missing data reduces confidence; it does not mean low risk.
Nested locations
- Brisbane RiverMODERATE
Nearby locations
- Brisbane River21.5 km
- Nerang / Broadwater86.2 km
- Gold Coast92.9 km
Data coverage
Where vShark knows little is as important as where it knows more. Missing coverage does not mean low risk.
- Shark observation coverageNONE
NSW SharkSmart is not connected. MOCK detections do not enter the score.
- Ocean coverageMODERATE
Open-Meteo marine at the Northern Beaches centroid.
- Weather coverageMODERATE
Open-Meteo weather at the Northern Beaches centroid.
- Ecology coverageLOW
iNaturalist and climatologies are labelled context and do not enter the score.
- Human exposure coverageLOW
Provisional calendar and swell proxy only.
- Sensor coverageNONE
No authorised detection network connected.
- Historical coverageLOW
Assessment history is append-only from this prototype, not a long operational archive.
NOW / HISTORY — recent assessments
Append-only model outputs. New model versions do not rewrite these rows.
| When | Band | Index | Confidence | Model |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 Nov 2026, 7:48 pm | MODERATE | 25.9 | MODERATE | 0.1.0-dev |
| 5 Nov 2026, 1:21 am | MODERATE | 25.9 | MODERATE | 0.1.0-dev |
| 13 Oct 2026, 6:38 pm | MODERATE | 25.9 | MODERATE | 0.1.0-dev |
| 9 Oct 2026, 8:09 pm | MODERATE | 25.9 | MODERATE | 0.1.0-dev |
| 9 Oct 2026, 6:24 pm | MODERATE | 25.9 | MODERATE | 0.1.0-dev |
| 5 Oct 2026, 4:55 am | MODERATE | 25.9 | MODERATE | 0.1.0-dev |
| 4 Oct 2026, 1:56 am | MODERATE | 25.9 | MODERATE | 0.1.0-dev |
| 1 Oct 2026, 3:30 am | MODERATE | 25.9 | MODERATE | 0.1.0-dev |
| 26 Sept 2026, 10:24 am | MODERATE | 25.9 | MODERATE | 0.1.0-dev |
| 22 Sept 2026, 7:57 am | MODERATE | 25.9 | MODERATE | 0.1.0-dev |
| 21 Sept 2026, 3:58 pm | MODERATE | 25.9 | MODERATE | 0.1.0-dev |
Evidence hierarchy
- Direct recent detection — Tagged receiver, verified instrument detection, or equivalent in the relevant window.
- Verified sighting — Sighting confirmed by a responsible authority or trained observer.
- Multiple corroborated observations — Independent reports that agree in space and time.
- Strong ecological proxy — Prey aggregation, carcass, or similar with documented association — still a proxy.
- Environmental habitat suitability — Temperature, depth, and similar suitability — not presence.
- Historical seasonal association — Climatology / phenology prior. Not a live observation.
- Long-term background prevalence — Baseline occurrence in the region. Weakest for now-casting.
Methodology
Relative interaction risk, not attack probability. Official advice outranks this page. Methodology · Data sources