Sorrento

Perth Metro, WA · City of Joondalup · Relative human–shark interaction conditions

← WA Perth MetroMOCKAssessed 19 Sept 2026, 7:08 pmModel 0.1.0-dev

Model audit · 18 September 2026

What vShark could have known at 10:00 AWST is kept separate from what became public after the incident. The frozen reconstruction does not raise the live 0–100 because a fatality occurred.

Open 10:00 vs after reconstruction →

Immediately south of Hillarys Boat Harbour. First WA retrospective: 18 September 2026.

Standing local context (true at 10:00)

Surf Life Saving daily patrols at this beach were not scheduled to begin until 26 September 2026.
Sorrento sits immediately south of Hillarys Boat Harbour, with a groyne near Sorrento Surf Club.
A shark barrier previously at part of this beach was removed in 2020.
Typical use here is swimming / ocean swimming close to shore — not a remote surf break.

Barriers are used at Cottesloe, Coogee, Quinns Beach and Bathers Beach. Some are seasonal and not installed until October. That is not a swim clearance at this beach.

Current state

MODERATE37.9/100

Experimental · uncalibrated

Confidence: MODERATE(58%)

Evidence freshness: 19 Sept 2026, 7:08 pm

Dominant evidence class for the index: Environmental habitat suitability

Public record on file (CACHED) — not used as live detection in the 0–100.

Why?

•No live shark detections — this is not an operational alert
•Water temperature (~18.9°C) favours great white shark thermal suitability
•Elevated expected human water use

Shark interaction risk is assessed as MODERATE (public index 37.9/100) with moderate combined confidence. Primary drivers: No live shark detections — this is not an operational alert; Water temperature (~18.9°C) favours great white shark thermal suitability; Elevated expected human water use. No live shark-detection feed is connected. This is an experimental development assessment, not an operational warning. Always follow lifeguard instructions, beach closures, and official WA SharkSmart / DPIRD advice. vShark is not a government or SLSA product.

Location map

Species conditions

Great white sharkPs 0.74 · contrib 0.369

Thermal 0.82 · Detection 0.00

Bull sharkPs 0.32 · contrib 0.051

Thermal 0.07 · Detection 0.00

Tiger sharkPs 0.39 · contrib 0.106

Thermal 0.22 · Detection 0.00

Mixed assemblage / transition hypothesis for the Perth metropolitan coast. Do not treat any single species as dominant without evidence.

Recent detections / sightings

Great white sharkCACHED
public sighting · unverified · 18 Sept 2026, 1:11 pmPublic source
Species not confirmedCACHED
official incident · verified · 18 Sept 2026, 10:15 amPublic source

CACHED rows are curated public notices, not a live tagged-shark feed, and do not enter the 0–100 as live detections.

Environmental state

air_temperatureLIVE16.6 °C20 Sept 2026, 3:00 am
rainfall_24hLIVE2.3 mm20 Sept 2026, 3:00 am
sstLIVE19 °C20 Sept 2026, 3:00 am
swell_heightLIVE3.04 m20 Sept 2026, 3:00 am
wind_direction_degLIVE264 deg20 Sept 2026, 3:00 am
wind_speed_knLIVE9.5 kn20 Sept 2026, 3:00 am

Human exposure

Class: estimated
Popularity proxy: high
Model exposure: 0.60

Activity classes: swimming, ocean swimming, surfing, bodyboarding

Estimated, not observed counts. No false precision.

Persistent spatial context

beach
groyne
reef
surf zone
sandbar

Geomorphology is persistent context, not a transient observation.

Data gaps

turbidity proxy
live detections

Missing data reduces confidence; it does not mean low risk.

Nearby locations

Hillarys1.2 km
Marmion1.5 km
Whitfords3.7 km
North Beach4.2 km
Trigg4.9 km
Mullaloo5.5 km

Data coverage

Where vShark knows little is as important as where it knows more. Missing coverage does not mean low risk.

Shark observation coverageLOW
Curated public notices for 18 September 2026 (SharkSmart incident, Boyinaboat report). Not a live tagged-receiver feed. Records are CACHED and do not enter the 0–100 as live detections.
Ocean coverageMODERATE
Open-Meteo marine SST and wave height at a regional centroid — not a beach sensor.
Weather coverageMODERATE
Open-Meteo forecast weather at a regional centroid.
Ecology coverageLOW
No live prey, whale, seal or productivity feed. Seasonal notes are hypotheses or climatology.
Human exposure coverageLOW
Estimated from popularity class, weekday/weekend and swell. Not a head-count.
Sensor coverageNONE
No acoustic, camera, drone or eDNA adapters connected.
Historical coverageMODERATE
Frozen model audit for 18 September 2026 is on file. Not a complete incident archive.

NOW / HISTORY — recent assessments

Append-only model outputs. New model versions do not rewrite these rows.

When	Band	Index	Confidence	Model
19 Sept 2026, 7:08 pm	MODERATE	37.9	MODERATE	0.1.0-dev
19 Sept 2026, 3:24 pm	MODERATE	37.9	MODERATE	0.1.0-dev
19 Sept 2026, 7:47 am	MODERATE	34.2	MODERATE	0.1.0-dev
19 Sept 2026, 3:36 am	MODERATE	34.2	MODERATE	0.1.0-dev
18 Sept 2026, 9:46 pm	MODERATE	34.2	MODERATE	0.1.0-dev
18 Sept 2026, 9:15 pm	MODERATE	34.2	MODERATE	0.1.0-dev
18 Sept 2026, 8:29 pm	MODERATE	24.3	MODERATE	0.1.0-dev

Evidence hierarchy

Direct recent detection — Tagged receiver, verified instrument detection, or equivalent in the relevant window.
Verified sighting — Sighting confirmed by a responsible authority or trained observer.
Multiple corroborated observations — Independent reports that agree in space and time.
Strong ecological proxy — Prey aggregation, carcass, or similar with documented association — still a proxy.
Environmental habitat suitability — Temperature, depth, and similar suitability — not presence.
Historical seasonal association — Climatology / phenology prior. Not a live observation.
Long-term background prevalence — Baseline occurrence in the region. Weakest for now-casting.

Methodology

Relative interaction risk, not attack probability. Official advice outranks this page. Methodology · Data sources · 18 Sep 2026 audit