Sorrento
Perth Metro, WA · City of Joondalup · Relative human–shark interaction conditions
Model audit · 18 September 2026
What vShark could have known at 10:00 AWST is kept separate from what became public after the incident. The frozen reconstruction does not raise the live 0–100 because a fatality occurred.
Immediately south of Hillarys Boat Harbour. First WA retrospective: 18 September 2026.
Standing local context (true at 10:00)
- Surf Life Saving daily patrols at this beach were not scheduled to begin until 26 September 2026.
- Sorrento sits immediately south of Hillarys Boat Harbour, with a groyne near Sorrento Surf Club.
- A shark barrier previously at part of this beach was removed in 2020.
- Typical use here is swimming / ocean swimming close to shore — not a remote surf break.
Barriers are used at Cottesloe, Coogee, Quinns Beach and Bathers Beach. Some are seasonal and not installed until October. That is not a swim clearance at this beach.
Experimental · uncalibrated
Evidence freshness: 10 Nov 2026, 7:21 pm
Dominant evidence class for the index: Environmental habitat suitability
Public record on file (CACHED) — not used as live detection in the 0–100.
Why?
- •No live shark detections — this is not an operational alert
Shark interaction risk is assessed as MODERATE (public index 30.7/100) with moderate combined confidence. Primary drivers: No live shark detections — this is not an operational alert. No live shark-detection feed is connected. This is an experimental development assessment, not an operational warning. Always follow lifeguard instructions, beach closures, and official WA SharkSmart / DPIRD advice. vShark is not a government or SLSA product.
Species conditions
Mixed assemblage / transition hypothesis for the Perth metropolitan coast. Do not treat any single species as dominant without evidence.
Recent detections / sightings
- Great white sharkCACHEDpublic sighting · unverified · 18 Sept 2026, 1:11 pmPublic source
- Species not confirmedCACHEDofficial incident · verified · 18 Sept 2026, 10:15 amPublic source
CACHED rows are curated public notices, not a live tagged-shark feed, and do not enter the 0–100 as live detections.
Environmental state
- air_temperatureLIVE24.1 °C11 Nov 2026, 6:15 pm
- rainfall_24hLIVE0 mm11 Nov 2026, 6:15 pm
- rainfall_7dLIVE0 mm11 Nov 2026, 6:15 pm
- sstLIVE21.1 °C11 Nov 2026, 6:15 pm
- swell_heightLIVE0.92 m11 Nov 2026, 6:15 pm
- wind_direction_degLIVE97 deg11 Nov 2026, 6:15 pm
- wind_speed_knLIVE7.4 kn11 Nov 2026, 6:15 pm
Human exposure
- Class
- estimated
- Popularity proxy
- high
- Model exposure
- 0.55
Activity classes: swimming, ocean swimming, surfing, bodyboarding
Estimated, not observed counts. No false precision.
Persistent spatial context
- beach
- groyne
- reef
- surf zone
- sandbar
Geomorphology is persistent context, not a transient observation.
Data gaps
- turbidity proxy
- live detections
- recent detections
Missing data reduces confidence; it does not mean low risk.
Nearby locations
Data coverage
Where vShark knows little is as important as where it knows more. Missing coverage does not mean low risk.
- Shark observation coverageLOW
Curated public notices for 18 September 2026 (SharkSmart incident, Boyinaboat report). Not a live tagged-receiver feed. Records are CACHED and do not enter the 0–100 as live detections.
- Ocean coverageMODERATE
Open-Meteo marine SST and wave height at a regional centroid — not a beach sensor.
- Weather coverageMODERATE
Open-Meteo forecast weather at a regional centroid.
- Ecology coverageLOW
No live prey, whale, seal or productivity feed. Seasonal notes are hypotheses or climatology.
- Human exposure coverageLOW
Estimated from popularity class, weekday/weekend and swell. Not a head-count.
- Sensor coverageNONE
No acoustic, camera, drone or eDNA adapters connected.
- Historical coverageMODERATE
Frozen model audit for 18 September 2026 is on file. Not a complete incident archive.
NOW / HISTORY — recent assessments
Append-only model outputs. New model versions do not rewrite these rows.
| When | Band | Index | Confidence | Model |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 Nov 2026, 7:21 pm | MODERATE | 30.7 | MODERATE | 0.1.0-dev |
| 10 Nov 2026, 6:38 pm | MODERATE | 30.7 | MODERATE | 0.1.0-dev |
| 10 Nov 2026, 5:37 pm | MODERATE | 30.7 | MODERATE | 0.1.0-dev |
| 10 Nov 2026, 3:02 pm | MODERATE | 30.7 | MODERATE | 0.1.0-dev |
| 10 Nov 2026, 11:42 am | MODERATE | 30.7 | MODERATE | 0.1.0-dev |
| 10 Nov 2026, 11:06 am | MODERATE | 30.6 | MODERATE | 0.1.0-dev |
| 10 Nov 2026, 12:32 am | MODERATE | 30.6 | MODERATE | 0.1.0-dev |
| 9 Nov 2026, 6:49 pm | MODERATE | 30.6 | MODERATE | 0.1.0-dev |
| 9 Nov 2026, 2:02 pm | MODERATE | 30.6 | MODERATE | 0.1.0-dev |
| 9 Nov 2026, 7:53 am | MODERATE | 39 | MODERATE | 0.1.0-dev |
| 9 Nov 2026, 4:54 am | MODERATE | 39 | MODERATE | 0.1.0-dev |
| 9 Nov 2026, 2:23 am | MODERATE | 38.8 | MODERATE | 0.1.0-dev |
| 8 Nov 2026, 9:29 pm | MODERATE | 38.8 | MODERATE | 0.1.0-dev |
| 8 Nov 2026, 6:54 pm | MODERATE | 38.8 | MODERATE | 0.1.0-dev |
Evidence hierarchy
- Direct recent detection — Tagged receiver, verified instrument detection, or equivalent in the relevant window.
- Verified sighting — Sighting confirmed by a responsible authority or trained observer.
- Multiple corroborated observations — Independent reports that agree in space and time.
- Strong ecological proxy — Prey aggregation, carcass, or similar with documented association — still a proxy.
- Environmental habitat suitability — Temperature, depth, and similar suitability — not presence.
- Historical seasonal association — Climatology / phenology prior. Not a live observation.
- Long-term background prevalence — Baseline occurrence in the region. Weakest for now-casting.
Methodology
Relative interaction risk, not attack probability. Official advice outranks this page. Methodology · Data sources · 18 Sep 2026 audit