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Experimental prototype — not an official warning system

Burns Beach

Perth Metro, WA · City of Joondalup · Relative human–shark interaction conditions

← WAPerth MetroMOCKAssessed 18 Sept 2026, 8:29 pmModel 0.1.0-dev

Model audit · 18 September 2026

What vShark could have known at 10:00 AWST is kept separate from what became public after the incident. The frozen reconstruction does not raise the live 0–100 because a fatality occurred.

Open 10:00 vs after reconstruction →

Northern extent of the 18 September 2026 City of Joondalup closure as reported.

Standing local context (true at 10:00)

  • This location is inside the City of Joondalup coastal strip covered by the 18 September 2026 official closure.
  • Surf Life Saving daily patrols on this metropolitan coast were not scheduled to begin until 26 September 2026.

Barriers are used at Cottesloe, Coogee, Quinns Beach and Bathers Beach. Some are seasonal and not installed until October. That is not a swim clearance at this beach.

Current state
MODERATE24.3/100

Experimental · uncalibrated

Confidence: MODERATE(46%)

Evidence freshness: 18 Sept 2026, 8:29 pm

Dominant evidence class for the index: Historical seasonal association

Public record on file (CACHED) — not used as live detection in the 0–100.

Why?

  • •No live shark detections — this is not an operational alert
  • •Missing SST reduces model confidence

Shark interaction risk is assessed as MODERATE (public index 24.3/100) with moderate combined confidence. Primary drivers: No live shark detections — this is not an operational alert; Missing SST reduces model confidence. No live shark-detection feed is connected. This is an experimental development assessment, not an operational warning. Always follow lifeguard instructions, beach closures, and official WA SharkSmart / DPIRD advice. vShark is not a government or SLSA product.

Location map

Species conditions

Great white sharkPs 0.50 · contrib 0.251
Thermal 0.35 · Detection 0.00
Bull sharkPs 0.46 · contrib 0.074
Thermal 0.35 · Detection 0.00
Tiger sharkPs 0.46 · contrib 0.125
Thermal 0.35 · Detection 0.00

Mixed assemblage / transition hypothesis for the Perth metropolitan coast. Do not treat any single species as dominant without evidence.

Recent detections / sightings

  • Great white sharkCACHED
    public sighting · unverified · 18 Sept 2026, 1:11 pmPublic source
  • Species not confirmedCACHED
    official incident · verified · 18 Sept 2026, 10:15 amPublic source

CACHED rows are curated public notices, not a live tagged-shark feed, and do not enter the 0–100 as live detections.

Environmental state

No environmental observations stored yet. Open-Meteo ingest writes to a regional centroid.

Human exposure

Class
estimated
Popularity proxy
moderate
Model exposure
0.45

Activity classes: swimming, surfing

Estimated, not observed counts. No false precision.

Persistent spatial context

  • beach
  • reef

Geomorphology is persistent context, not a transient observation.

Data gaps

  • sea surface temperature
  • turbidity proxy
  • live detections
  • recent detections

Missing data reduces confidence; it does not mean low risk.

Nearby locations

Data coverage

Where vShark knows little is as important as where it knows more. Missing coverage does not mean low risk.

  • Shark observation coverageLOW

    Curated public notices for 18 September 2026 (SharkSmart incident, Boyinaboat report). Not a live tagged-receiver feed. Records are CACHED and do not enter the 0–100 as live detections.

  • Ocean coverageMODERATE

    Open-Meteo marine SST and wave height at a regional centroid — not a beach sensor.

  • Weather coverageMODERATE

    Open-Meteo forecast weather at a regional centroid.

  • Ecology coverageLOW

    No live prey, whale, seal or productivity feed. Seasonal notes are hypotheses or climatology.

  • Human exposure coverageLOW

    Estimated from popularity class, weekday/weekend and swell. Not a head-count.

  • Sensor coverageNONE

    No acoustic, camera, drone or eDNA adapters connected.

  • Historical coverageMODERATE

    Frozen model audit for 18 September 2026 is on file. Not a complete incident archive.

NOW / HISTORY — recent assessments

Append-only model outputs. New model versions do not rewrite these rows.

WhenBandIndexConfidenceModel
18 Sept 2026, 8:29 pmMODERATE24.3MODERATE0.1.0-dev

Evidence hierarchy

  1. Direct recent detection — Tagged receiver, verified instrument detection, or equivalent in the relevant window.
  2. Verified sighting — Sighting confirmed by a responsible authority or trained observer.
  3. Multiple corroborated observations — Independent reports that agree in space and time.
  4. Strong ecological proxy — Prey aggregation, carcass, or similar with documented association — still a proxy.
  5. Environmental habitat suitability — Temperature, depth, and similar suitability — not presence.
  6. Historical seasonal association — Climatology / phenology prior. Not a live observation.
  7. Long-term background prevalence — Baseline occurrence in the region. Weakest for now-casting.

Methodology

Relative interaction risk, not attack probability. Official advice outranks this page. Methodology · Data sources